by Rose Ragsdale
Simmons said energy economists are reluctant to even entertain the notion that Saudi oil output is past its peak because they really don't understand the difference between oil supply peaking and running out of oil.
"I continue to remind people that the difference is as profound as someone saying, 'I'm getting a little bit hungry,' and someone saying, 'I have about two more minutes to live before I starve to death,'" Simmons said. "We will never run out of oil, in our lifetime, our children's lifetime, our grandchildren's lifetime. But by 2030 we could easily have a world that can only produce 10 or 15 or 20 million barrels per day, and the shortfall from what we thought we were going to produce is only a modest 100 million barrels per day. So this is really a major, major, major global issue."
Compounding the problem is that every energy supply model used by economists today starts with the assumption that Saudi oil is plentiful, Simmons said. "What's interesting is that we've based all of this assumption on no data," he explained.
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