Forecasting Peak Oil

Those with eyes could see it coming - ASPO Ireland (Peak Oil):
by Matt Simmons -- Oct 2005
"Subsequent actual production statistics show that the UK reached a secondary peak in 1997/98 at just above 2.6 Mb/d and now struggles to stay above 1.6 Mb/d. All the optimists about the role of technology were totally wrong. But the same folks still believe the same hype. They have merely moved the goal posts. I wonder how long it will take mainstream energy thinkers to awake to the threat that the world is approaching peak oil output and might have already passed this crucial global milestone.
Will Katrina perhaps serve as a genuine wake-up? Time will tell but I sense we are now in a very crucial sea change of energy thinking."