World Needs to Face Saudi Oil Output Limits

Schlumberger | World Needs to Face Saudi Oil Output Limits:
by John M. Biers -- 10-19-05
"While Bartlett's views are consistent in some ways with the peak oil school, he rejects Saudi critics like Houston investment banker and analyst Matt Simmons, who has questioned the longevity of Saudi reserves. Saudi output can increase significantly, but it does have limits, Bartlett said.
'I believe the Saudis would make 15 million barrels per day for 50 years if they have to,' he said. But Saudi Arabia has 'never promised 20 million... Where is this 20 million coming from?' he asked.
Even though the kingdom's huge reserves would seem to theoretically allow for higher production, operators risk reducing the volume of ultimately recoverable oil if they try to produce fields too quickly, Bartlett said. Even if it were possible to produce at higher rates, Bartlett said such a strategy would risk robbing the fields of the natural pressure that makes the Saudi fields uniquely copious.
'The problem is the field itself has certain dynamics,' said Bartlett, adding that a decision by Saudi Arabia to produce at 22 million 'is a very dangerous thing for them to do.' Sustained production at that level would be amazingly expensive and is 'almost impossible,' Bartlett said in a recent interview in Houston, which he visits during periodic consulting assignments for Aramco."